Securities Times: Epidemic Invades Stock Market, Rational Investors Will Be Winners

Securities Times: Epidemic Invades Stock Market, Rational Investors Will Be Winners
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!  The history of the Securities Times Fu Jianli A-share market has repeatedly proven that the final winner belongs to value investors and rational optimists.  Since January 2020, the pneumonia epidemic of the new coronavirus infection in Wuhan has affected the hearts of investors in the capital market. Concept stocks such as anti-flu and masks have risen in the stock market, and the overall mood of the market has fallen. This weekThe Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.41%, the market ‘s emotional cycle is changing fast. Some people boasted that the stock adjustments in the hotels, restaurants, tourism, aviation, film and television sectors related to “travel” were obvious. Because of the new pneumonia epidemic, the short-term sector rotation of the A-share market has changed., Investor mentality is also mixed.  Compared with the SARS virus 17 years ago, according to Zhong Nanshan, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a well-known respiratory expert, there is no effective medicine for new pneumonia, which is an effective substitute for patient isolation.There is a human-to-human phenomenon of new pneumonia, which will not 杭州桑拿 repeat the SARS epidemic.To exaggerate or exaggerate this sudden epidemic situation is irrational and not objective. However, under the scientific and orderly government organization, adopting scientific methods to achieve effective prevention and control, we have every reason to believe that we will definitely controllive.The history of human society for thousands of years, how many plagues and epidemics have been encountered, but in the end they all survived, and of course this time will be no exception.Under the premise of keeping calm, rational and effective prevention and control, investors need not be overly pessimistic. For any epidemic situation, “sunshine” is the best prevention and control measure.Losing confidence in the A-share market because it is too serious will prove that such investors will not have good returns.  The last round of the SARS epidemic started at the end of 2002 and ended around July 2003. The Shanghai Composite Index’s position on November 1, 2002 was 1510.At 16:00, July 17, 2003 was 1539.36 points, although this intermediate stock index has experienced a relatively large change, the Shanghai Composite Index has not decreased during the entire SARS period. After November 2003, the A-share market also set off a relatively large wave of time spans.The bull market for more than 3 months; from the perspective of the Hong Kong stock market, in May 2003 it hit a very important bottom of 8,300 points in history, and rose to 32,000 points in four years, almost 4 times the space!Therefore, if we lengthen the time a bit, there is no epidemic situation that can prevent the sustained development of China’s economy. Without this view of history, it is extremely irrational to block the depression of emotions due to the temporary epidemic situation.  In the two days of the A-share market, medical stocks represented by anti-viral concepts such as Lukang Pharmaceutical, Northeast Pharmaceuticals, Shanghai Kaibao, and Ling Pharmaceuticals, have even pulled up two daily limit or surged. In essence, these areA kind of conceptual hype caused by the emotional cycle of the market. Investors must even understand the hype of these stocks. They must also understand that the big gains in these stocks are not caused by the sudden increase in performance, and some are not even fundamental.Any relationship.Some listed companies also took the opportunity to announce the launch of new R & D coronavirus detection kits, etc. Strictly speaking, no sooner or later, but at this time, it is difficult to ignore the suspects who have cleared the “hot spot”.What investors need to know is that most of the hype of these concept stocks will eventually come from where they will go. Only investments based on the continuous growth of listed company performance can be healthy, sustainable and replicable.of.  On the contrary, for some smaller and better stocks that were mistakenly killed when the market sentiment fluctuated, some technology stocks, infrastructure stocks, real estate stocks, and chemical stocks that have recently announced performance growth and growth must be opportunities to pick up bargains.The history of the A-share market has repeatedly proven that the ultimate winner belongs to value investors and rational optimists.  Do not believe the rumor, do not spread the rumor, scientifically and rationally prevent and control the new type of coronavirus infection pneumonia, let the virus be completely destroyed in the sun, understand the boundaries of speculation and investment, this is the mentality that rational investors should have, but also the A-share market is constantlyToward maturity requires a mentality.

GF Securities (000776) Annual Report Comments: Overall Business Performance is Steady, Hong Kong Subsidiary Slows Performance

GF Securities (000776) Annual Report Comments: Overall Business Performance is Steady, Hong Kong Subsidiary Slows Performance

Core Views Guangfa Securities released its 18th annual report. The company realized operating income of US $ 15.3 billion, -29% per year, and realized net profit attributable to its mother of US $ 4.3 billion, -50% per year, which was weaker than the industry.

In addition, the company’s 18-year average average return on net assets was 5.

07%, 5 per year.

48pct, ROE level is slightly higher than the industry.

The decline of the company’s performance was limited by the industry environment, and the replacement was caused by the replacement of Hong Kong fund subsidiaries.

The large investment business is the core reason for the decline in performance. Hong Kong subsidiaries have dragged down the performance.

The company has achieved self-operated performance for 41 years.

600 million, previously -54%.

Among them, equity investment income -2.

1.9 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.

36 trillion, mainly due to the impact of the stock market decline; net income from fixed income investment 45.

4 ‰, an increase of 8 per year.

1.1 billion.

It is worth noting that the Pandion Fund incorporated in GF Hong Kong was affected by factors such as changes in foreign exchange exchange and the lack of liquidity in the relevant market, and was suspected of major losses, reducing the net profit of GF Securities’ consolidated statement for 18 years.

US $ 1.9 billion, there is still some uncertainty about the subsequent impact of the incident, and it also reflects the company’s breakthrough in the management of overseas derivative risks.

Affected by external factors, 上海夜网论坛 many businesses of the company have different degrees.

1) Credit business: Affected by the decline in Liangrong’s balance, the company’s Liangrong interest income was 40.

7 ‰, at least -6.

The company’s own funds participated in the stock pledge balance of US $ 22.3 billion, approximately -16%; the 18 years of resale financial assets impairment loss was 69.37 million yuan, and the overall pledge risk was controllable.

2) Brokerage: Net income from brokerage business was 34 in 18 years.

500 million US dollars, -20% a year, is temporarily mainly affected by the turnover, the company’s 18-year stock trading market share4.

37%, a decrease of 0 per year.


3) Investment bank: Net income of the company’s investment bank for 18 years12.

200 million US dollars, -56% before, the decline was due to equity underwriting transactions, the company’s investment banking advantage lies in small and medium-sized enterprises, and the 18-year equity financing structure has been concentrated in large state-owned enterprises and head private enterprises.Service layout.

5) Asset management: The company’s net income from asset management for 18 years37.

4 ‰, the previous -6%, of which cleaning up large collections has affected the company’s asset management scale.

On the whole, the company’s proactive management capabilities continue, and the company’s proactive asset management monthly average ranked third in the industry in 18 years.

  Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions We expect the company’s BVPS to be 11 in 2019-21.



89 (The original forecast was 2019-20-12.


03) According to the estimates of comparable companies, we give the company January 2019.

7xPB, corresponding to the expected 20.

21 yuan, maintaining the overweight level.

  Risk warning Systemic risk suppresses the company’s estimates; the advancement of the science and technology board is less than expected; the risk treatment of Hong Kong subsidiaries still remains uncertain.

Yuyuan Garden (600655): Interim report results are in line with expectations

Yuyuan Garden (600655): Interim report results are in line with expectations
The event company released its 2019 Interim Report: 2019H1 company achieved revenue of 196.5.3 billion, an increase of 34 in ten years.62%; realized net profit attributable to mother 10.2.1 billion, an increase of 9 in ten years.31%. The company launched the first employee equity incentive plan and the second employee performance stock incentive plan.The budget incentive plan intends to award a total of 3.65 million budgets to a total of 50 core 深圳SPA会所 operating managers, involving shares accounting for 0 of the company’s current total share capital.094%; the extended stock incentive plan intends to award a total of 301 stocks to 40 core operating managers.80,000 shares, accounting for 0 of the company’s current total share capital.078%. Briefly commented that the performance maintained high growth, in line with expectations, the H1 company’s revenue in 2019 increased by 34.62% to 196.5.3 billion, the net profit attributable to mother increased by 9.31% to 10.2.1 billion, the company’s H1 performance was in line with expectations. The revenue of major business segments accelerated, the gross profit margin increased, and the effect of the overall transformation of the jewellery main business was prominent.H1 jewelry segment revenue is growing by 15 per year.9% to 100淡水桑拿网.9.5 billion (H1 consolidated IGI increase revenue about 1.200 million, driving a revenue growth rate of about 1 pct), and the gross profit margin extended by 0.95 pct to 7.At 79%, the net profit of H1 attributable to jewellery sector increased by 45.32% to 2.8.9 billion, a growth rate of 6 pct previously.We estimate that the revenue of the single Q2 jewellery segment increased by about 25%, the growth rate increased by 16pct from Q1, and the gross profit margin of Q2 jewellery was 9.55%, up 2 from Q1.9 points.The company’s jewellery sector has undergone a comprehensive transformation, brand image and product quality have been comprehensively improved. Combined with the consolidated IGI, it has formed a certain thickness, and the jewellery sector has improved significantly quarter by quarter.In terms of stores, Q1 / Q2 had a net increase of 183/144 stores, respectively. At the end of H1, the total number of channel networks was 2,417, an increase of 22%. The company maintained rapid exhibitions and further improved its offline network. It is expected that the increase in gold prices since Q3 is expected to boost gold jewelry consumption and continue to benefit the company’s gold jewelry segment. The resort / catering business has gradually strengthened its brand advantage.19H1 resort revenue is growing by 18 per year.41% to 4.6.7 billion, gross margin increased short-term1.46% to 84.8%; catering business income increased significantly by 45.55% to 3.9.4 billion, gross margin increased by 0 in the short term.31 points to 65.53%, the catering business mainly benefited from the opening of chain expansion and store renovation and upgrading driven by Songhe Tower. Multi-functional real estate: H1’s property development sales revenue increased 71 and increased.78% to 81.4.8 billion, gross margin increased short-term2.75 pct to 26.95%. The contracted sales amount / area of H1 company is 5.6 billion / 290,000 square meters, and the single Q2 is 2.1 billion / 130,000 square meters. The profitability has improved significantly, and the expense ratio has basically stabilized. Thanks to the company’s main business sector’s gross profit margin expansion and higher catering, the property development sector’s revenue share has driven the increase.twenty four%.The expense ratio increased slightly and remained basically stable: the H1 sales / management / finance expense ratio was -0 each year.2 / +0.7 / + 0.4 pct to 3.5% / 5.5% / 1.7%, H1 company’s period rate increase slightly increased by 0.9 pct to 10.7%. In terms of net profit margin, benefiting from the increase in gross profit margin, H1’s sales net profit margin rose by 0.6 pct to 7%. Significant improvement in cash flow, continuous improvement in operating quality 2019H1 The company’s net operating cash flow increased from 1.1 billion to 2.6 billion every two years, and the cash flow increased significantly. It is expected to benefit from the strong growth of the main jewelry industry and the cash of functional real estate business.Replacement increases.As the contracted sales of land merged and merged by the company is in good condition, we expect the company’s cash flow will continue to be healthy and plentiful, and at the same time continue to provide the company’s industrial operation + industrial investment two-wheel drive strategy to continue to provide strong hematopoietic capabilities. Launched the first employee budget & the second employee stock incentive plan, set the growth target to show confidence. The company intends to launch the first employee budget & the second employee stock incentive plan: the compensation incentive plan is planned to reward the company’s core operating managers a total of 50 people.The budget is 3.65 million, and the stocks involved account for 0 of the company’s current total share capital.094%, the unlocking condition is that the CAGR of the net profit attributable to the parent in each of the years 2019-2021 is more than 12%; the stock incentive plan can be awarded to a total of 40 core operating managers.80,000 shares, accounting for 0 of the company’s current total share capital.078%, the unlocking condition is that the company will gradually return to the mother’s net profit of not less than 60/97/132 trillion in 2018-2019 / 2018-2020 / 2018-2021.The company overweights the incentive mechanism, sets growth targets for the next three years, demonstrates the company’s development confidence, practises Fosun’s partner culture, and promotes the formation of a long-term incentive mechanism to stimulate employee vitality. Investment suggestion: The company relies on the coordinated and stable development of multi-business cooperation of Yuyuan Mall. The overall transformation of the main business of gold and jewellery has begun to appear, and the speed of the exhibition has continued to increase.The brand strength of the catering segment continued to strengthen, with revenue growth and gross profit margins significantly improved; the composite real estate segment had strong cash flow capabilities and contract sales were in good condition.The company has built an overweight incentive system, formed a long-term incentive mechanism, and demonstrated confidence.We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 33.9, 38.0, 42.700 million, corresponding PE is 10X, 9X, 8X.Considering that the company’s gold and jewellery main business transformation effect is prominent, the fundamentals continue to improve, and the current significant undervaluation, we upgrade the company’s rating to “Buy”. Risk factors: Marginal growth rate of household consumption declines; gold prices fluctuate greatly; real estate market policy adjustments; increased industry competition

Rare Shanghai stock index stands at 3000 points

Rare Shanghai stock index stands at 3000 points
China Securities Net Fee Tianyuan’s recent enthusiasm for the A-share market has soared.As of yesterday’s close, the turnover of the two cities has exceeded 1 trillion for two consecutive 重庆耍耍网 days, and the Shanghai Index has successfully recovered the 3,000 mark.  According to statistics, in the history of the A-shares, the Shanghai stock index stood at 3,000 points 46 times.However, this time it is different, that is, at the same time when it broke 3,000 points, the daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen also exceeded 1 trillion yuan.Air Force, this fact only happened once on March 4, 2019.For example, if the “gate information” of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges on the day of 3,000 points was set at 900 billion, such “band breakthroughs” occurred 5 times.  Judging from the historical market situation, after the “band breakthrough” of 3,000 points, the market may consolidate in the short-term, but most of the strong trends in the medium and long term have continued.  “Breakthrough” released a strong signal. After noon yesterday, the Shanghai Index successfully recovered the 3,000-point integer mark.Bottom 2685 since February 4.Since 27 o’clock, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 10 in the last 13 trading days.32%, showing strength.  Finally closed yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index reported at 3030.15 points, up 1.84%; Shenzhen Securities Index reported 11509.09 points, up 2.43%; ChiNext Index reported 2186.74 points, up 2.twenty one%.The total turnover of the two cities was 10,684.26 trillion, exceeding 10,000 trillion for the second day in a row.  In addition to the Shanghai index recovering 3,000 points, the recent strong performance of the Shenzhen and Shenzhen stock indexes has also made investors astounded.SZSE Component Index, GEM refers to yesterday ‘s intraday highs.Among them, the GEM refers to a new high in the last 10 trading days after rising to a high of more than three years on February 6.  Looking back at the historical market, the recent volume and price bureau of the market is quite similar to the bull market in the first half of last year.On March 4, 2019, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index returned to the 3000-point mark in 9 months, and the turnover of the two cities also exceeded 1 trillion yuan on the same day.After that, the Shanghai stock index fluctuated around 3000 points for about a month, and then rose to 3288.45 points.  The brokerage sector has merged into the mainstay of the attack, and every time the index overcomes an important hurdle, the brokerage sector will exert its strength.  Prior to yesterday, the brokerage sector performed inconspicuously in this round of bottoming rally since February 4.From February 4th to 19th, the Shenwan Securities Industry Index rose by only 10.76%, ranked in the middle reaches of 104 Shenwan secondary industries.  But before and after the market was closed at noon yesterday, the brokerage sector suddenly developed strength.Huaxin shares were closed before the noon market break. Eastern Fortune, Huaxi Securities, Huaan Securities and others followed the ups and downs in the afternoon. Leading brokerage stocks such as CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities also significantly increased.  Driven by the brokerage sector, the Shanghai Composite Index broke the overall 3,000-point mark at around 13.10.Since then, the inclusion of securities companies, liquor and other sectors have continued to expand, and the Shanghai Stock Index has reached a maximum of 3031.37 points.  Finally, yesterday’s closing, the Shenwan Securities Industry Index as a whole increased by 6.13%, Huaxin shares and other 7 brokerage stocks harvested daily limit, CITIC Construction Investment, etc. rose more than 8%, CITIC Securities rose 5.92%.  Guo Tingting, chief analyst of the financial industry of Guosheng Securities, pointed out that the driving factor for the growth of the brokerage sector is mainly the combined effect of market cycles and policy cycles.The market cycle mainly comes from the release of liquidity, brokerage brokerage, self-operated and other high β businesses directly benefit; the financial policy cycle directly affects the investment and financing environment of the capital market, and the long strips promote the development of brokerage business.  Ma Tingting believes that the current market is active and the epidemic has limited impact on the securities sector.The current brokerage sector is estimated to be at a relatively low level. Considering the decline in risk-free interest rates, relatively loose liquidity, and favorable follow-up policies, these three factors have replaced the bullish sector’s subsequent performance.  Technology stocks “Hurricane” not only assisted the securities sector to recover 3,000 points. Before that, the focus of market capital this year was mainly on technology stocks.  From February 4th to 19th, the overall growth of Shenwan computer industry reached 25.92%, ranking first in the first-tier industry, and the cumulative growth rate of the electronics and communications industries also exceeded 18%.The integrated circuit sector is also the strongest variety in technology stocks. The packaging leader Jingfang Technology has continued to increase by 200% this year. The varieties in the science and technology board Lanqi Technology and Lexin Technology have also increased by more than 45% during the year.  New energy, cloud computing, optical optoelectronics and other technologies have all grown in turn since this year, and jointly promoted the GEM to take the lead in setting a new high in the recent rebound.  Yesterday, the technology category performed equally well for the time being.The integrated circuit sector rose again and stopped, Zhaoyi Innovation, Fuhan Micro and other multi-share harvests stopped, and Jingfang Technology rose 5.58%.In the optical optoelectronics sector, TCL technology, Lehman Optoelectronics and other stocks have daily limit, cloud computing sector will communicate smoothly, hypermap software and other daily limit.  Jufeng Investment Gu Ding Yuhang believes that the recent strong performance of GEM is supported by performance.According to the performance forecast, GEM’s overall performance growth rate in 2019 will return to more than 60%.The Growth Enterprise Market Index more than doubled in 2015, and its growth rate in that year was only 60%.  Zhang 杭州夜生活网 Qiyao, chief strategy analyst of Guosheng Securities, said that the era of equity financing will usher in the future, and the science and technology board will have huge development potential.In the future, the number of companies in the science and technology innovation board, the proportion of their weights, and the average segmentation of the sector will continue to increase.Obviously, the science and technology board will attract more and more institutional investors to participate, becoming one of the “main battlefields” of A shares, and will also become an important source of excess income.

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Commentary on Major Events: Group Marketing Companies Become Investors’ Expectations

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Commentary on Major Events: Group Marketing Companies Become Investors’ Expectations
Event: Guizhou Moutai Group Marketing Company was established during the May 1st period (Public number Moutai Time and Space: “The Moutai Group Marketing Company was unveiled!Complementing the advantages of social channels to promote the transformation and upgrading of the marketing system “has caused widespread concern in the capital market. The focus is on whether the group’s direct marketing company will reduce the Moutai liquor left by the distributors from last year to this year under the group marketing company’s 100% group control.Worse, whether this will cause a large amount of related party transactions and the corresponding governance structure issues.We take this as an objective point of view and make the following comments: It is suggested that investors should fully understand the Guizhou government and the leaders of Moutai. In the past year, in order to make Moutai’s operations more clean, so that the price of Moutai is more stable, the great determination and achievements madeWork hard.In the past year, many important management and marketing positions in Moutai have undergone personnel adjustments, and the overall economic environment is also quite unfavorable. However, under the leadership of Moutai ‘s existing core leadership and the full support of the government ‘s major shareholders, Moutai has not only passed smoothly.After this period, it also gave the capital market an unexpected performance return and huge investment returns, which fully illustrates the ability of the large shareholders to stabilize the overall situation, it can be said that the ability to operate, and the emphasis on investor returns.For Moutai, the past year was indeed a rare opportunity to reshape the channel system, better control market prices, achieve dynamic balance between supply and demand, and realize the transformation and upgrading of the marketing system. Investors are advised to fully understand the need of Moutai leaders to balance the interests of multiple parties and to coordinate the marketing of the Group’s product portfolio.Guizhou Moutai is based on the capital market and has given shareholders a huge investment income. It has increased 200 times since its listing, and its listing financing is only 22.400 million, and gradually distributed dividends to shareholders of 574.700 million is the banner of the blue chip of capital market value.At the same time, Moutai is also based in Guizhou Province. As a pillar enterprise in the province with relatively backward economic development, Moutai has always assumed huge social responsibilities, including the contribution to the local finance, capital expenditure to GDP, and account capitalSupport for local financial institutions and corresponding support for the development of local government debt issuance, combined marketing of the entire group product system to achieve the 100 billion target, etc. Investors may not fully understand all aspects of Moutai and the social responsibilities to be undertakenWithout sustained balance, there will be no sustainable development.Judging from the internationally accepted ESG (environmental, social, and corporate governance) investment standards, investors may pay more attention to long-term G, while the government 重庆耍耍网 as a major shareholder may also need to take into account short-term S, which may cause some contradictions.In fact, we also see that leaders have expressed their desire to protect the interests of listed shareholders and to implement a differentiated pricing plan for group marketing companies and dealers. Of course, we also recommend that Moutai Group and its actual controllers can further understand the capital market’s attention to corporate governance and the innovation of capital operation methods of conventional enterprises.At present, we generally understand that the joint stock company and the group marketing company will be connected in some form of sales and pricing, how much the corresponding related transaction amount is, and whether it may be necessary to vote at the shareholders meeting.In the context of the central government’s increased efforts to expand reform and opening up, financial markets have continued to open and equity investors have continued to internationalize. Moutai not only represents itself, but also represents the governance image of the entire state-owned enterprise’s blue chip stocks.We believe that the actual controller can find a win-win solution with shareholders, dealers, employees and other parties in compliance with the internationally accepted rules of listed companies. Maintain target price of 1,000 yuan, “strong push” level.The company’s dealers continued to optimize, and channel marketing gradually transformed. In the first quarter, it made a good start as expected, with strong brand power and market response capabilities. The subsequent direct sales quickly ensured rapid growth in certainty, and the internationalization of premium liquor asset evaluation became clearer.We temporarily maintain the company’s EPS forecast for 2019-202133.5/39.3/45.3 yuan, corresponding to PE is 29/25/21 times, maintaining a target price of 1,000 yuan, corresponding to 20 years of PE at about 25 times, maintaining a “strong push” rating. Risk factors: The prosperity of high-end wines has declined, and market prices have fallen sharply.

Zhejiang Dingli (603338): The production capacity of the aerial platform leader continues to expand, and the domestic market expansion capacity is continuously enhanced

Zhejiang Dingli (603338): The production capacity of the aerial platform leader continues to expand, and the domestic market expansion capacity is continuously enhanced

Leader in aerial work platforms with rapid growth The company’s main business is the research and development, manufacturing and sales of various intelligent aerial work platforms.

The company’s main products are divided into two categories. The first category is aerial work platforms, including six types of products: straight arm type, curved arm type, scissor type, mast type, mast type and mast climbing type.The category is forklifts, including three series of electric forklifts, semi-electric forklifts and manual forklifts.

From 2015 to 2018, the company’s composite revenue from operating income reached 52.

77%, the compounded net interest rate compound growth reached 56.


2019Q1 achieved revenue 3.

84 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.

44%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 44 in ten years.


Q1 is the traditional off-season of the company’s product sales, with general revenue growth exceeding continuous growth.

The company’s gross profit / net margin in 2019Q1 was 42.

89% / 26.

29%, an increase of 5 per year.


77 pct. The increase in gross profit margin maximizes the expansion range. Finally, the exchange rate affects the replacement of the gross profit margin base. The replacement is due to the decline in raw material costs and the increase in gross profit margin caused by the small volume of arm-type products.

The cost advantage brought by scale effect, lean management to reduce costs and increase efficiency. In the case of steel prices nearly doubled from 2016 to 2017, the company’s raw material cost still accounted for 50-52% of revenue, indicating thatChanges in the company’s cost digestion and price restructuring capabilities; direct labor costs from 3 in 2017.

65% fell to 1 in 2018.

58%, showing that the company’s production efficiency has been continuously 南京夜网论坛 improved. Through the expansion of production capacity, the labor cost of intelligent manufacturing has continued to decrease.

The lean management vigorously promoted by the company has begun to reduce costs in multiple dimensions. Among them, the ratio of sales expenses to total operating costs is basically stable, management expenses have decreased, and financial expenses on exchange gains have been greatly reduced, thereby increasing the company’s net profit.

Continue to explore overseas markets. The company with the highest rate of leasers in the domestic market continues to expand overseas markets, especially in developed markets in Europe and the United States.

In 2018, the company’s overseas main operating income was 92,491.

180,000 yuan, an increase of 30 compared with the same period last year.


The proportion of total revenue was 54%.

Productivity in the domestic market continues to increase, with growth rates of 21 in 2016-2018.

27%, 39.

21%, 84.

twenty three%.

The company has the highest coverage rate among domestic leasing companies. According to the “2016 Survey Report on the Operational Conditions of Aerial Work Platform Leasers”, from the operating data of more than 200 aerial work platform leasing companies, it can be seen that among various brands,Of the leasers have the highest coverage rate, half of the leasers have full equipment, the coverage rate reaches 50.


Earnings forecast and rating We believe that the future demand for aerial work platforms will continue to grow. At the same time, the company benefits from the decline in raw material costs and the continuous increase in production capacity. We expect the company’s operating income in 19-21 will be 23.



10,000 yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother is 6, respectively.



900,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 1.87/2.


43 yuan, corresponding PE is 30/22/17 times.

Covered for the first time, giving “overweight” rating.

Risk reminders: 1) crisis of growth in overseas markets; 2) risk of Sino-US trade friction; 3) risk of exchange rate fluctuations.

Sanqi Mutual Entertainment (002555): High income growth but short-term storage pressure on sales costs Expect major works to mature profits

Sanqi Mutual Entertainment (002555): High income growth but short-term storage pressure on sales costs Expect major works to mature profits

Event 1) The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved operating income of 76.

33 ppm, an increase 佛山桑拿网 of 23 in ten years.

33%; Attributable net profit 10.

09 billion, down 37 a year.

77%; attributable non-net profit4.

$ 7.5 billion fell 54.

7%; non-GAAP adjusted attributable net profit.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 6 in ten years.


Performance is in line with expectations.

2) The company released the first quarter report of 2019, and the operating income was 32.

470,000 yuan, an increase of 95 in ten years.

46%; Attributable net profit 4.

54 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

8%; attributable non-net profit 4.

17 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.


Performance is in line with expectations.
3) The company expects a net profit range of 9 in the first half of 2019.



00 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

31% to 24.


Brief Comment 1. The performance is in line with expectations; explosive funds promote high revenue growth, and high marketing expenses during the expenditure period lead to pressure on short-term net profits.

33 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.


Benefiting from the launch of two new games, “One Pass” and “Doulau”, the company’s operating income in the first quarter of 2019 was 32.

47 million, a year-on-year growth rate of 95.


In terms of business, in 2018, mobile game operating income increased by 70%.

0%, is the first to drive higher initial revenue, mobile games business flow86.

8.3 billion US dollars, an annual growth rate of over 85%, the domestic mobile game market share increased to 6.

48%; web game revenue 16.

4.6 billion, affected by the shift of user trends to mobile terminals and the decline in the number of page games products, each decline of 28.

4%; assets related to auto parts have been divested during the year.

2) Gross profit and gross profit margin: With the development of self-developed products, the company’s gross profit margin tends to increase, reaching 87 in the first quarter of 2019.

7%, an increase of 16 per year.
1pct, an increase of 9 from the previous month.
5 points.

In terms of business, the gross profit and gross profit margin of the mobile game business were the highest again, with a gross profit margin of 81 in 2018.

0%, further improvement of 4 per year.

5pc; the gross profit of web games tends to decline, but the gross profit margin further increases 5.

0pct to 71.


3) Periodic cost and expense ratio: Affected by the launch of new products, a series of major works such as “Lost City of Ghost Speaking”, “Sword of the Archangel H5”, “Awakening of the Immortal”, “Breaking Dragon” and other major works are still among the mainDuring the promotion period, the company’s sales expense rate rose sharply. In the first quarter of 2019, two more popular works during the promotion period, “One Pass” and “Duro Continental H5” were added. At that time, the sales rate reached 66.

0% historical high.

Due to the rapid growth of the income end, the comprehensive management expense rate including R & D expenses under a unified caliber has tended to decline, and the company has continued to grow in R & D. In 2018, R & D expenses continued to increase23.


Overall control of financial expenses is better.

4) Net profit: In 2018, due to the company’s performance commitments in Shanghai Mojing failed to meet the standards, the company confirmed that it had confirmed relevant performance compensation gains and goodwill impairment losses. The impact on the attributable net profit in 2018 was approximately -5.

0.6 billion.

In addition, in 2018, the company had no significant equity disposal gains. (In 2017, due to the disposal of equity of companies such as Shanghai Yuanyuan and Shanghai Aurora, the after-tax investment income was recognized2.

00 billion).

Mainly due to the significant increase in selling expenses, the company’s net profit attributable to the company increased by 10 in the first quarter.

8%, the growth rate is significantly lower than the income side.

It is expected that in the future, the game will gradually develop into a mature period, and marketing-related expenses will gradually decrease, and profit release will be gradually realized.

5) Operating cash flow: The company’s net operating cash flow for the first quarter of 2019 was 1.

US $ 5.8 billion. Previously, the average chain rate fell. First, the increase in Internet traffic costs led to higher operating cash flows.

6) Performance indicator: Estimated net profit range for the first half of 20199.


00 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

31% to 24.

78%; corresponding to 2Q19 attributable net profit range 4.


460,000 yuan, an increase of 13 in ten years.



Compared with the weak profit growth rate in the first quarter, the profit release of explosive products is expected to gradually be realized in the second quarter.

2. Strengthen the strength of independent research and development, and enhance the strength of multi-category game research and development. Since 2018, the company has newly launched more than 10 mobile games since its research, and the mobile game R & D business has increased by 61.

05%, the proportion of self-developed mobile games continued to increase.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s self-developed “Doulau Continental” H5 and “One Passed” were outstanding, forming a good support for the strong growth of the revenue side.

In 2019, the company’s casual sports game “Super Ball (tentative name)”, turn-based game “Mobile Game Project AOD”, and simulation business game “Code G” are expected to be launched, and the rest are in the mobile gameIt also includes “Legend NB”, “Codename YZD”, “Legend”, “Codename DG”, “Dark Descendants”, “Elven Ceremony”, etc., totaling more than ten models, self-developed product categories continue to develop.

3. Domestic market share of domestic distribution business is increasing, and overseas is expected to contribute incremental space. The company adopts a new strategy of “three-dimensional marketing + precision promotion + long-term service” systemic traffic management.Has its own advantages.

In terms of three-dimensional marketing, the company; in terms of precision promotion, the company has accumulated user resources and big data for many years to improve the effectiveness of targeted advertising; in terms of long-term user services, the company combines rich product supply to provide players with a more comprehensiveOne-stop service to continuously improve player satisfaction, activity and retention, and improve user life cycle.
1) Domestic mobile game distribution market: The company’s game distribution categories tend to diversify. In addition to strengthening self-developed products, it also cooperates with high-quality manufacturers such as Tencent, Netease, Perfect World, and Century Huatong, as well as strategic cooperation through investment and stock ownershipAnd other ways to deepen the supply of quality game content.

The company’s issued business product reserves cover ARPG, MMO, card, SLG and other types, involving different alternatives such as fantasy, Eastern and Western fantasy, adventure, cultivating, and two-dimensional.

In 2018, the company’s domestic mobile game publishing business market share further increased to 6.

There are more than 5 products with monthly sales of more than 100 million products issued since 2018, and the highest monthly sales tray reaches 9.

More than 300 million, with a total of more than 1.

100 million people, with a maximum monthly active users of more than 20 million, and diversified business strategies have achieved initial results.

Up to now, the company’s domestic mobile game products have been reserved for the mobile game “Sword and Reincarnation”, “Pig and Dungeon”, “Fairy 2 (tentative name)” and other self-developed products “Super Energy””Ball” ball (tentative name), “Codename YZD”, “Legend”, “Elven Ceremony” and so on.

2) Overseas mobile game distribution market: Combining self-developed and agency products of diversified categories, the company has achieved breakthroughs in Japan, South Korea, and other regions while maintaining the competitive advantages of Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan and Southeast Asian markets.

Among them, “Age of Eternity” was launched in Japan at the end of June 2018 and has a monthly flow of more than 10 million. In addition, mobile game products in the Korean market have also achieved a strategic flow of more than 10 million and the top 10 games best-selling results.

As of the end of 2018, the company’s overseas game distribution has covered more than 200 countries and regions around the world, and nearly 80 mobile games have been released worldwide.

As of now, the company’s reserve products include: ① “Code MH”, “Code ZSJ”, etc. for the global SLG market; ② SNK card games for the Japanese market, women’s games “Cygnus”, and the two-dimensional game “Devil King Project””; ③ The two-dimensional game” Shock Library: Zero Realm “for the Korean market, SLG game” True Dragon Domination “, ARPG game” Dark Descendants “, etc .; ④ Other games include” Soul Sister: Legend of the Moon Beside “,” DoulaContinental “,” Hope M “, etc.

3) Domestic page game issuance market: In 2018, the company’s internal page game market gradually increased the number of open services to nearly 36,000 groups, ranking first in the 9k9k service list and maintaining its leading position in the industry.

The outstanding products launched by leading companies also include “Tai Chi Rise”, “Town Magic” and “Destroyer”. The “Legend of Domination” and “Angel Sword”, which have been on the line for four years, have been launched on the 2018 page tour.The list is ranked 4th and 7th, which forms a better support for revenue.

In 2019, the company is expected to launch a page research product “Miracle X (tentative name)” and an agent page game product “Swordsman (tentative name)”.

4. Improving the layout of the cultural and creative industries and advancing the platform strategy The company continues to improve the layout of the cultural and creative industry chain by investing in stocks and other methods, actively exploring high-growth cultural and creative cross-cutting areas, covering games, film and television, animation, music, literature, VR / AR, Internet health, Internet education and other cultural consumption areas, so as to continuously expand the coverage of the population, especially the coverage of young people.

Achievements, the company’s supplementary investment areas include Awakening Yoga (Internet Sports), Miao Xiaocheng and KaDa Stories (Children’s Education), Jimu (Youth Culture and Social), Yuanji Painting (Artist Broker), Jinhai Shiyi (IP Incubation)).
The company’s other invested projects also include games (Shenzhen Zen Tour, Zilong Interactive Entertainment, Heartbeat Network, Chengdu Fighting, etc.), film and television music (Youying Culture, Zhonghui Television, Fenghua Qiushi, etc.), and animation (excellent culture, artPainting Kaitian, play can play, etc.) and VR (Archiact, Shanghai Tianshe Culture) and so on.

5. In the short term of profit forecasting and investment advice, titles such as “One Blade” and “Douluo H5” are still in the distribution period, and sales costs are expected to remain close to the level, but after entering the profit release period, they are expected to contribute significantly to the flexibility of contribution.
A variety of products with monthly sales of over one hundred million yuan proves the company’s outstanding research and transportation strength in launching explosive products, diversified 北京夜网 product layout and more corrective steps to the sea also provide the company with higher medium and long-term development space.

Maintain 2019 / 20E net profit forecast18.

500 million / 21.

2 trillion, the current market value corresponds to 2019 / 20E P / E ratio of 15.

7 times / 13.

5x, continue to recommend.

6. Risk reminder: The increase in traffic expenses is higher than expected, the existing head product flow is less than expected, the performance of new products on the market is lower than expected, and policy supervision is becoming severe.

Guoxuan High-tech (002074): The application of lithium iron phosphate with obvious cost performance advantage

Guoxuan High-tech (002074): The application of lithium iron phosphate with obvious cost performance advantage

This report reads: As one of the top three power battery plants in China, the company’s certain competitive advantage in the field of lithium iron phosphate has transformed into the era of parity. The price-performance ratio has become increasingly important, and the company’s promotion will benefit from it.

Investment Highlights: Give a target price of 17.

28 yuan, the first coverage, given an overweight rating.

The company is one of the top three power battery factories in the country, and its strength has improved in the field of lithium iron phosphate. After supplementing the indicators of more cost-effective after the decline, the company tries to benefit from it, and the company gradually develops international high-end customers with increasing strengthIncreasing thickness, it is expected that the return to mother’s profit for 2019-2021 will be 7.

3, 9.

1, 11.

200 million yuan, corresponding to 0 EPS.

64, 0.

80, 0.

99 yuan, the reference industry’s average valuation of 27 times in 2019, giving it a valuation of 27 times in 2019 and a target price of 17.

28 yuan, giving an overweight rating.

The low linear price of lithium iron phosphate brings 12% cheaper overall cell cost.

At present, the price of cobalt has returned to normal levels, and the prices of ternary mutations and lithium iron phosphate mutations have gradually stabilized. The average price of ternary mutations is 15 million tons and lithium iron phosphate is 6 million tons. Based on this calculation, threeThe cost of a yuan battery is 701 yuan / degree, and the cost of a lithium 杭州夜生活网 iron phosphate battery is 621 yuan / degree. The lithium iron phosphate battery is about 12% cheaper than the former, and has a cost-effective advantage. In low-range mileage passenger cars, commercial vehicles, energy storage, and electricIt has advantages in applications such as ships.

The company’s power battery has always ranked in the top three in terms of sustainable domestic capacity, and has even better competitive advantages in the field of lithium iron phosphate.

The company has gradually developed some high-end customers.

In 2017, the company gradually entered the passenger car field. Major customers include JAC, BAIC, and Chery. In 2018, passenger car customer orders replaced the company’s main replacement volume. Recently, the company has successively entered into small-scale cooperation and purchase agreements with Huawei, Bosch, and Tata., Gradually from the previous low-end customers into the high-end field.

Risk reminder: The application development of lithium iron phosphate battery is less than expected, and the price change range exceeds expectations

Yangquan Coal (600348): The performance exceeded expectations by 0.58 times PB severely underestimated

Yangquan Coal (600348): The performance exceeded expectations by 0.58 times PB severely underestimated
Event: On August 23, 2019, the company released its semi-annual report. The company’s revenue for the first half of the year was 155.2.6 billion, down 7 every year.68%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is 10.63 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.06%. Comment on the first-half performance exceeding expectations: In the first half of 2019, the company realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 10.63 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.06%, net profit attributable to mother 5 in the second quarter.3.4 billion, an annual increase of 38.81%, an increase of 0 from the previous month.93%, more than we expected. The cost control is good, and the gross profit of the coal business has improved significantly: According to the announcement, the company’s coal production in the first half of 2019 increased by 7% in continuous production in 2017, and its sales volume fell by 3432, down by 5.11%, inventory of 167 budget, downgraded by 4 every year.57%, mainly due to the further decline in coal purchase groups and subsidiaries16.01%.Revenue per ton of 佛山桑拿网 coal was 419.4 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4 per year.36%, the cost per ton of coal is 337.85 yuan / ton, down 7 before.93%, gross profit per ton of coal reached 81.50 yuan / ton, an increase of 13 in ten years.92%.The budget for producing coal in the second quarter is 1002, and the annual value-added is 2.98%, down 1 from the previous month.28%, sales growth of 1636, annual decline of 14.88%, down 8 from the previous month.91%; ton coal revenue reached 429.79 yuan / ton, down by 1 every year.39%, an increase of 4 from the previous quarter.86%; the cost per ton of coal is 335.17 yuan / ton, down 8 before.65%, down 1 from the previous month.51%; gross profit per ton of coal was 94.61 yuan / ton, an increase of 37 previously.3%, an increase of 36%. In terms of different types of coal, the company’s lump coal sales increased in the first half of the year, while the end coal and pulverized coal declined: According to the announcement, the company sold lump coal 243 in the first half of 2019.82 At least, value added 12 every year.2%; sales of 138 tons of pulverized coal, a decrease of 21 per year.08%, sales of coal 2939.77 initially, down 5 per year.33%; sales of slime 109.7 initially, 7 declines each year.35%.At the lowest level, the price of slime has fallen the most, falling by 25 per year.4%, followed by lump coal, with prices falling by 7.27%, and the price of refined coal drops by 3 per year.85%, the price of pulverized coal fell by 0%.15%.The cost reductions were all at 7.More than 5%, so gross profit per ton of coal is higher. Capacity Expansion: 1) According to the announcement, the Wenjiazhuang Coal Mine Reconstruction and Expansion Project in Yangquan Mining Area has been resettled. The Wenjiazhuang Mine’s production capacity has been replaced by 90 / year to 500 tons / year.Total project investment 39.140,000 yuan (excluding mining rights fees).After the reconstruction and expansion is completed, it can contribute to the increase of production.2) The Boli Coal 500 can further increase the production index. According to the company’s disclosure of the capacity index replacement plan, it is planned to replace the capacity of 272 from within Yangmei Group.Every year, the external replacement capacity is 227.In the year of 80 / year, the transaction of external replacement capacity has been completed. The acquisition of 131 liquidity indicators from the group this time, the transaction price is 1.5.7 billion.According to the semi-annual report, the current construction progress of the Boli Coal Industry is 15.04%, after production is expected to contribute to the increase in output. It is planned to issue no more than US $ 2 billion of preferred shares, which is expected to reduce financing costs and increase performance: According to the announcement, the company plans to issue non-public preference shares of no more than 20 million shares at a nominal value of RMB 100 per share and a total issued amount of no more than USD 2 billionThe raised funds are intended to be used to repay loans from financial institutions or replace other interest-bearing debt.The issue of preferred stocks will help the company reduce its asset-liability ratio, optimize its financial structure, and also reduce financing costs, which will help the company’s performance increase. Accelerator for national reform in Shanxi: According to the Shanxi Daily report, the strategy of April 15 strives to achieve an overall listing and two “zero breakthroughs” in the listing of new shares. Existing listed companies should strengthen market value management and gradually increase the asset securitization rate. “As the group’s only coal listed company, the company is expected to benefit from Shanxi’s national reform. Investment suggestion: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent in 2019-2021 will be 21.42/22.00/24.03, the corresponding EPS is 0.89/0.91/1.00 yuan / share.Considering the overall rebound of the coal sector, the company’s current PB is only 0.At 58 times, we think the company is severely undervalued and given a “Buy-A” rating with a 6-month target price of 7.12 yuan, equivalent to 8 times PE. Risk warning: coal prices have fallen sharply, costs have fallen below expectations, and new capacity construction has been slower than expected

Oupai Household (603833): The company released the 19-year annual report to forecast the profit side slightly higher than expected

Oupai Household (603833): The company released the 19-year annual report to forecast the profit side slightly higher than expected

Event: The company released the 2019 annual report preview: 1.

The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies for the year 2019 is expected to increase by 23,577.

From 870,000 yuan to 39,296.

460,000 yuan, an annual increase of 15% to 25%.


The company’s annual net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019 is expected to increase by 14,970.

140,000 to 29,940.

280,000 yuan, an increase of 10% to 20% in ten years.


It is expected that the ratio of operating income in 2019 to the same period of the previous year will increase by 115,093.

From 870,000 yuan to 230,187.

730,000 yuan, an increase of 10% to 20% over the same period last year.

  Opinion: According to the guidance of the company’s forecasted expected income and profit, we can infer that the company’s 19Q4 income range is 31.


76 ppm, an increase of -5 in ten years.


09%; 19Q4 returns to the net profit range of the parent is 4.


870,000 yuan, an increase of 15 in ten years.


85%, 19Q4 deducted non-profit range is 3.


500,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.


twenty one%.

We assume that the initial net profit of returning to the mother is the interval median, and the corresponding net profit of returning to the mother in 19Q4 is 5.

08 million yuan, an increase of 36 in ten years.

71%; we assume that the maximum non-net profit deduction is the median interval, which corresponds to a non-net profit of 4 in 19Q4.

31 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.


  From the notice, at least the profit side is more than expected. After the release of the third quarterly report, the capital market generally believes that it is difficult for the company to achieve the 19-year growth target (revenue 15% and profit 20%) proposed in the 2018 annual report.Look, the probability of reaching it is still relatively large.

  The first three are: 1.
The company’s non-recurring gains and losses have increased, and the company received government subsidies in the 武汉夜网论坛 current period2.

11 ppm, a government benefit related to gains of approximately 1 was initially identified.

About 2.8 billion.


The company’s 18Q4 net profit margin itself is relatively low.

19Q4 improved controls on marketing expenses and rebates.

  Looking forward to 2020, we will maximize our confidence in the company, and the logic probability of completion at the (industry segmentation) will be verified. If the company is segmented, we recommend that investors pay more attention to the new business of Oupai (assembly and accessoriesBusiness) This is also the main source of flexibility for the European evaluation side.

  We expect the company’s EPS to be 4 in 2019-2020.

38, 5.

6 yuan, corresponding to PE for 2019-2020 is 25.

9, 20.

Three times, the company is leading the industry in diversified channels, expanding categories, and supply chain integration. Considering that the company may become the future leader of the two trillion home / home improvement industry, the current market value of 47.7 billion is undervalued in the medium and long term.Maintain “Buy” rating.

  Risk warning: The real estate boom is lower than expected, and business promotion is lower than expected.